Operation Star One: The Original Plan

[toysdream]

One of the many mysteries of the original Mobile Suit Gundam is the original plan for Operation Star One, the final stage of the Earth Federation's space offensive. At the end of the story, the Federation ends up attacking the Zeon space fortress A Baoa Qu, but over the years there have been claims that this wasn't the original plan.

In episode 41 of the original series, Gihren Zabi comments that the Federation Forces lack the fighting strength to overcome Granada or A Baoa Qu, and that they'll instead try to storm the Zeon homeland directly. "That's the way that Revil thinks," says Gihren.


Well, I just picked up the October issue of Gundam Ace, and according to this issue's installment of Gundam The Origin, Gihren was right on the money. In this installment, General Revil is outlining his strategy for Operation Star One, using six markers to represent the Federation's space fleets. Five of the six fleets will set out from the occupied Solomon towards A Baoa Qu, but as they reach Zeon's final defensive line, Revil's own fleet will turn around and head straight for the Zeon homeland.

Revil expects that the A Baoa Qu forces will be unable to resist attacking his exposed flank, and so he assigns the 3rd Fleet (here commanded by Wakkein, who's still alive in The Origin) to pin down the A Baoa Qu forces. Two more fleets, representing the Federation's main force, will follow Revil toward the Zeon homeland; the 5th Fleet will take up a position behind Wakkein's fleet, serving as a raiding force to handle any changes in the situation.

The other admirals are dubious, to say the least. Revil's plan relies on Wakkein's fleet to singlehandedly hold off the entire A Baoa Qu force, and has no provision to deal with Kycilia's intact forces at Granada. Revil, however, cites Lenin's dictum that a chain is no stronger than its weakest link, which in this case is the Zeon homeland. As for A Baoa Qu, he feels that assigning the White Base corps to Wakkein's fleet will make up for the difference in fighting strength.


Interesting stuff! Not only does this validate Gihren's speculation, but it also raises a bunch of related questions. Why has Gihren allowed the Zeon homeland to become the proverbial "weakest link"? Why is Revil so certain that Kycilia won't take the bait and intercept his forces en route to Side 3? Is this all just more Zabi backstabbing, or a series of elaborate feints and traps?

EDIT: And I just noticed that, at the end of episode 41, the narrator mentions that the real objective of Operation Star One is to "skip A Baoa Qu and invade Zeon." So there we have it. I think I hadn't registered that because the verb 「抜く」 used in the Japanese dialogue has so many possible meanings in this context that I've never been quite sure how to interpret this line, but given Gihren's prediction at the beginning of the same episode, I think "skip" is probably the correct interpretation.

-- Mark

[T.V.]

Interesting stuff indeed.

However, if this is to serve as an illustration of Gihren's ability to read others and strategize well, I find his performance at A Boao A Qu rather underwhelming.
Then again, he may have superior political talent, yet just be a relatively poor manager/commander at the same time.

Revil, however, cites Lenin's dictum that a chain is no stronger than its weakest link, which in this case is the Zeon homeland. As for A Baoa Qu, he feels that assigning the White Base corps to Wakkein's fleet will make up for the difference in fighting strength.

No smartass admiral telling Revil about Wakkein's fleet having to deal with A Baoa A Qu and leaving Granada unchecked as being their own weakest link?..

As for Revil, he seems to concentrate on the psychological nature of warfare more than the physical one.
Instead of taking out/dealing with Zeon's combat strength, he's believes it's easier to win the war by breaking the will of the people, through showing up on their doorstep, than to break their lance.
Doesn't sound that farfetched, considering the totalarian nature of the Principality's dictatorship and the associated information control they extending on their own people.

Sounds like Revil was willing to pull a McArthur by importing his own soldiers to Zeon.

[toysdream]

As for Revil, he seems to concentrate on the psychological nature of warfare more than the physical one.
Instead of taking out/dealing with Zeon's combat strength, he's believes it's easier to win the war by breaking the will of the people, through showing up on their doorstep, than to break their lance.
Doesn't sound that farfetched, considering the totalarian nature of the Principality's dictatorship and the associated information control they extending on their own people.

On the other hand, it's also possible that Revil is trying to give Degwin Zabi an opportunity to make a peace treaty. In his strategy lecture, Revil notes that "Gihren's forces" are at A Baoa Qu, so perhaps he somehow knows that Gihren himself is based there. In that case, his operation plan leaves Gihren isolated at A Baoa Qu while Revil pulls up at Degwin's doorstep with a large enough fleet that Degwin can claim he has no alternative but to sue for peace. Since that's exactly what Degwin ends up doing, it wouldn't be a completely unreasonable scenario.

And I wouldn't put it past Revil to come up with it, given his familiarity with the Zabi family. (In fact, according to Gundam The Origin, Degwin personally met with Revil after he was taken prisoner in the Battle of Loum and begged him to help broker a peace treaty; it's even implied that Degwin and Kycilia helped arrange Revil's escape for just this reason.) If Revil really sees the various Zeon strongholds in terms of their commander's personalities - A Baoa Qu = Gihren, Granada = Kycilia, Side 3 = Degwin - then perhaps he's simply counting on Kycilia not to intervene while her father meets with Revil.

-- Mark

[yazi88]

If Revil really sees the various Zeon strongholds in terms of their commander's personalities - A Baoa Qu = Gihren, Granada = Kycilia, Side 3 = Degwin - then perhaps he's simply counting on Kycilia not to intervene while her father meets with Revil.

-- Mark

On a somewhat related note, if Kycilia's forces were based in Granada, why was Colonel Killing from 0080 assigned there and even took over the base? You would think that there would be more commanders/higher ranking officers aside from the 4 or 5 killed by Killing's men.

[Imperial]

Intriguing material strikes once again! Revil seems to have a love affair with high-risk, high-reward operations. In the novels, there was even commentary about how his chosen approach at A Baoa Qu would yield the highest casualties, but he felt he would be vindicated because drilling through the defenses had the highest chance of success. Maybe Loum taught him that you have to be willing to risk it all to win big. Who knows?

As cool as the entire scenario is, with Revil's surprising political savvy being the most amusing note, I feel compelled to do a little devil's advocacy and point out that this is The Origin. It takes its fair share of liberties with things, whether it's more mobile suits on White Base or Wakkein living much longer, as you mentioned in the your write-up. (I'm not even going to mention Loum because it's never consistent.) That's not to say we should discard it on reflex, but working Origin material into the preexisting canon can get a bit tricky when you have to start navigating the highways and biways of what you can "fit."

[Wulver]

If Revil really sees the various Zeon strongholds in terms of their commander's personalities - A Baoa Qu = Gihren, Granada = Kycilia, Side 3 = Degwin - then perhaps he's simply counting on Kycilia not to intervene while her father meets with Revil.

-- Mark

On a somewhat related note, if Kycilia's forces were based in Granda, why was Colonel Killing from 0080 assigned there and even took over the base? You would think that there would be more commanders/higher ranking officers aside from the 4 or 5 killed by Killing's men.

I'd assume Kycillia had already left for A Baoa Qu at that point?

[toysdream]

On a somewhat related note, if Kycilia's forces were based in Granda, why was Colonel Killing from 0080 assigned there and even took over the base?

Well, Killing had every right to be there. Even though one the illustrations in MS Era shows him lying dead next to a portrait of Gihren Zabi, he was a member of the Mobile Assault Force, so Kycilia was signing his paychecks.

As to the apparent power vacuum while Killing is doing his thing, that's harder to explain. Killing's reign of terror takes place somewhere between December 19 and December 25, during which time Kycilia and M'Quve are mustering a fleet to go to the aid of Solomon, so in theory they should be right there at Granada. (Not to mention the Granada fleet commander, Nord Wrangell.) Either Killing staged his micro-coup while everyone was away from their desks, or he was operating with Kycilia's tacit approval and Commodore Lugens was the only person who didn't get the memo.

As cool as the entire scenario is, with Revil's surprising political savvy being the most amusing note, I feel compelled to do a little devil's advocacy and point out that this is The Origin. It takes its fair share of liberties with things, whether it's more mobile suits on White Base or Wakkein living much longer, as you mentioned in the your write-up. (I'm not even going to mention Loum because it's never consistent.)

Actually, it seems as if we're slowly approaching some kind of consensus regarding the Battle of Loum, and Yas's version of the battle actually does one of the better jobs of tying all the conflicting accounts together. Although his take on the story can seem a little fanfic-ishly incestuous from time to time, I figure he's probably in a better position to understand all this behind-the-scenes maneuvering than almost anyone except Tomino. I might put The Origin into the same category as, say, Tomino's novels or Gundam Century - a work created by the original series staff that isn't supposed to fit perfectly with the anime continuity, but still explains a lot of the intended back story.

-- Mark

[Imperial]

Actually, it seems as if we're slowly approaching some kind of consensus regarding the Battle of Loum, and Yas's version of the battle actually does one of the better jobs of tying all the conflicting accounts together. Although his take on the story can seem a little fanfic-ishly incestuous from time to time, I figure he's probably in a better position to understand all this behind-the-scenes maneuvering than almost anyone except Tomino. I might put The Origin into the same category as, say, Tomino's novels or Gundam Century - a work created by the original series staff that isn't supposed to fit perfectly with the anime continuity, but still explains a lot of the intended back story.

-- Mark

Oh, really? Would you mind discussing just that consensus? Keeping tabs on Loum is usually a recipe for frustration, but it would be nice if the powers that be could come together to create an halfway-coherent account.

And what to you mean by "fanfici-ishly incestuous?" Too much Yas pushing his own theories and interpretations to the foreground?

[Gelgoog Jager]

As to the apparent power vacuum while Killing is doing his thing, that's harder to explain. Killing's reign of terror takes place somewhere between December 19 and December 25, during which time Kycilia and M'Quve are mustering a fleet to go to the aid of Solomon, so in theory they should be right there at Granada. (Not to mention the Granada fleet commander, Nord Wrangell.) Either Killing staged his micro-coup while everyone was away from their desks, or he was operating with Kycilia's tacit approval and Commodore Lugens was the only person who didn't get the memo.

I remember reading a summary from Char's Counterattack - Beltorchika's Children, which indicated that the Federation didn't want Amuro to have a Newtype MS, and that they regarded this situation the same as handling nuclear weapons.

At her time, Kycillia is the one that gave most importance to Newtypes, so maybe she might have had similiar thoughts, especially considering the Gundam's battle record so far.

Other discussions have lead us to believe that MAF was the Zeon division that committed most of the war crimes (Cima's marines gassed colonies, MAF fired nukes at colonies at Loum when they engaged the Revil fleet again, etc.), and considering that M'quve even fired a nuke in Odessa and seems to have gotten away unpunished, it might not be too far fetched to think that Kycillia might have actually considered that it was well worth breaking the treaty in order to prevent the Alex, a Gundam for newtypes, from being completed/deployed.

Also, while Side 6 was a supporter for Zeon before the war, during the last stages of the war, they were beginning to provide more support to the Federation, and in this case, nuking the colony also meant destroying a Federation's base.

[bluemax151]

EDIT: And I just noticed that, at the end of episode 41, the narrator mentions that the real objective of Operation Star One is to "skip A Baoa Qu and invade Zeon." So there we have it. I think I hadn't registered that because the verb 「抜く」 used in the Japanese dialogue has so many possible meanings in this context that I've never been quite sure how to interpret this line, but given Gihren's prediction at the beginning of the same episode, I think "skip" is probably the correct interpretation.

-- Mark

Sometimes context is everything isn't it? It can also be used in a rather lewd fashion as well. I suppose skip or omit probably makes the most sense though.

[Pegasus]

EDIT: And I just noticed that, at the end of episode 41, the narrator mentions that the real objective of Operation Star One is to "skip A Baoa Qu and invade Zeon." So there we have it. I think I hadn't registered that because the verb 「抜く」 used in the Japanese dialogue has so many possible meanings in this context that I've never been quite sure how to interpret this line, but given Gihren's prediction at the beginning of the same episode, I think "skip" is probably the correct interpretation.

-- Mark

I find it quote interesting that we're finally getting the piece together an idea of what Revil's original plan was. This does raise one question; do we know who it was in the EFSF hierarchy that changed the plan? After the Solar Ray was fired, who rallied the fleet and pointed it at A Baoa Qu?

[toysdream]

Honestly, the evidence from the TV dialogue becomes more confusing the more I look at it, thanks to that ambiguous keyword 「抜く」. It turns out that the same word is used twice in episode 41, in what seem to be opposite contexts. First, here's Gihren commenting to Degwin:

「しかし、連邦軍の戦力とて、底をついております。すなわち、グラナダ、ア・バオア・クーを抜く力はない。となれば、直接、我が本国を強襲するでしょう。あのレビルなら考えそうなことです」

"But the Federation Forces have reached the end of their fighting strength. In other words, they lack the power to (overcome?) Granada or A Baoa Qu. In that case, they'll probably attack our homeland directly. That's how that Revil thinks."

And then here's the narrator at the end of the episode:

「その頃、レビル将軍指揮する地球連邦軍艦隊はア・バオア・クーに対する第三戦闘ライン上に集結しつつあった。ここに至り、レビル将軍は、攻撃目標を示した。ア・バオア・クーを抜き、ジオンに進攻すると」

"At the same time, the Earth Federation Forces fleet commanded by General Revil is gathering along the third combat line from A Baoa Qu. Here, General Revil announces the attack objective: To (bypass?) A Baoa Qu and invade Zeon."

In general, the Japanese word 「抜く」 means something like "remove," whether by overcoming or by removing from consideration. In the first case, Gihren predicts that the Federation lacks the strength to do this to Granada or A Baoa Qu, but in the second case the narrator tells us that Revil plans to do this to A Baoa Qu in order to invade the Zeon homeland. It seems weird that the same word would be used with virtually opposite meanings in the same episode, but that seems to be the right interpretation.

So why did the plan change after Revil's death? If Revil was counting on making a deal with Degwin Zabi, I can see how that plan would have gone out the window with Degwin's death. At that point there's nobody left to negotiate with, and Gihren could probably care less what happens to the Zeon homeland. So you either have to take out Gihren himself, or give up and go home.


Speaking of Gihren, here's one more little tidbit I noticed while I was looking at the episode scripts. After Kycilia shoots Gihren, her lackey Twanning goes into spin control mode, announcing: "Supreme Commander Gihren died honorably in action. The Dolos fleet has been destroyed. Lady Kycilia, you have command."

At first glance, the comment about the Dolos fleet seems like a non-sequitur, and it's actually omitted from the movie version of this scene. But when you think about it, it would be kind of implausible for Gihren to be killed in action while standing in A Baoa Qu's control room. Perhaps Twanning's cover story is that Gihren was actually commanding the battle from aboard his beloved Dolos, and simply went down with the ship.

-- Mark

[Gelgoog Jager]

Speaking of Gihren, here's one more little tidbit I noticed while I was looking at the episode scripts. After Kycilia shoots Gihren, her lackey Twanning goes into spin control mode, announcing: "Supreme Commander Gihren died honorably in action. The Dolos fleet has been destroyed. Lady Kycilia, you have command."

At first glance, the comment about the Dolos fleet seems like a non-sequitur, and it's actually omitted from the movie version of this scene. But when you think about it, it would be kind of implausible for Gihren to be killed in action while standing in A Baoa Qu's control room. Perhaps Twanning's cover story is that Gihren was actually commanding the battle from aboard his beloved Dolos, and simply went down with the ship.

-- Mark

That's interesting. I checked that episode again, and while the scene showing the Dolos sinking is shown right after Kycillia shoots Gihren, your timeline indicates that the Dolos lasts another 15 minutes after Gihren died. That means that A Baoa Qu's control room was paralyzed for at least that long until Twanning finally started to put things back in order.

Or maybe it was the other way around? They stayed paralyzed until Twanning realized that the Dolos had sunk and saw in that a possible cover story.

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/timeline.php

[bluemax151]

After looking at the entire line of dialogue Mark I think they might be trying to make some kind of insinuation. It is possible in this situation they are going for "draw out". Perhaps Revil's plan also intends to pull out A Baoa Qu's forces on purpose and does not just intend to use Wakkein's fleet to protect from a possible counter attack but bets on it?

[toysdream]

That's interesting. I checked that episode again, and while the scene showing the Dolos sinking is shown right after Kycillia shoots Gihren, your timeline indicates that the Dolos lasts another 15 minutes after Gihren died. That means that A Baoa Qu's control room was paralyzed for at least that long until Twanning finally started to put things back in order.

Well, we have to remember that these timelines don't always match the animation all that well. (There are bits in the official ZZ timeline where events that obviously happen within minutes of each other in the anime are separated by several weeks!)

The detailed One Year War timeline comes from Entertainment Bible 39, whose account of the Battle of A Baoa Qu seems pretty loosely connected to the animation. (The writeup on the Battle of Solomon is much more anime-compatible.) I think this is just another case where the EB 39 writers didn't think through the implications of their own timeline.

After looking at the entire line of dialogue Mark I think they might be trying to make some kind of insinuation. It is possible in this situation they are going for "draw out". Perhaps Revil's plan also intends to pull out A Baoa Qu's forces on purpose and does not just intend to use Wakkein's fleet to protect from a possible counter attack but bets on it?

Actually, I'm feeling like a chump now that I've checked the accompanying animation. Here's the tactical diagram that accompanies Revil's announcement of the "true target" of Operation Star One:

starone.jpg

So the three groups of the Federation fleet are indeed supposed to "overcome" A Baoa Qu en route to Zeon, and we're using 「抜く」 in the same sense both times. This means that, as far as the anime is concerned, Gihren is simply wrong about Revil's strategy. As for The Origin, maybe Yas is just varying things up, or maybe something will happen to change Revil's mind...

-- Mark