A dumb question about Axis, Neo-Zeon and ZZ

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Ork_dreadnought
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A dumb question about Axis, Neo-Zeon and ZZ

Okay, my knowledge of the Zeta area is patchy, so I apologise in advance for what is probably a series of stupid points.

My concern is this, how is Axis/Neo-Zeon an actual threat to to the wider Federation? Now the stock answer to this something like "It would be a focus point for anti-federation feeling, which the Titans managed to encourage. See also Federation corruption and complacency." However, I'm having a hard time buying that, for several reasons. First off, Axis itself is roughly comparable to a space colony, and even accounting for the aftermath of the Gyrps war, the difference in manpower and material is staggering, far greater than Zeon's original disadvantage. Now, I certainly see why the Federation left Axis alone in the first place. The logistical problems of travelling to asteroid belt, where the likely result would be a be a bloodbath for minimal benefit, would not appeal to any sane military commander. That does not however mean that Neo-Zeon is anything special once it leaves. The Federation fleet, with a homefield advange, should have have decimated them. Neo Zeon has no technical advantage, an army consisting largely of kids, against an force which is now experienced in MS warfare and far larger.

So my question is, how does Neo Zeon even hope to win?
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Raso
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Well the feds dont like to evolve or build new suits. Most of the time they are to broiled in their own internal matters and plain just dont care about space. They let the titans deal that.

That and the events in 0083 put the federation at having next to nothing left and most of what was left was sent to the titans. (one of the ways 0083 tried to bridge the gap between the series)

So with the titans dealing with the AEUG they can worm their way in get on somebody's side (on any side I dont think it would matter) blow up the other side, betray their current allys and they win or at least really close to winning. Worked pretty well since at the begining of ZZ the Titans are gone the AEUG is in no shape to fight a full scale war becides just 1 ship.
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I believe the key word here is Zabi. Axis/Neo-Zeon have the last remaining member of a family that many spacenoids treated as royalty. Sure, Gihren and company were evil sadistic murderers, but at the end of the day I'd say they were still very well liked by the majority of the population of Side 3 at least. There's definitely a cult of personality in effect around that family. Most spacenoids aren't thrilled with the Federation, especially the Earthbound government. So when you have a charismatic leader like Haman return you probably do have a great deal of support for Axis. She represents the one group who was the biggest threat to the Federation, after all they were winning the war for a long while. You also see in ZZ that once Axis returns different Zeon groups that have been hiding out since the OYW (kinda like the guys in 0083) emerge and start fighting again. All the ones we see on screen are of course decimated by the Gundam team, but what's to say that many former OYW pilots and soldiers didn't join the Axis forces. In all, you could say that Haman knew exactly what she was doing. Her early forces went to colonies to recruit, and none of the colonies we see on screen have any Federal Forces presence, only the Argama which itself was badly damaged. Then she went straight to Dakar where she knew she could take advantage of the weak Federation government, which she was successful doing until Bright and company show up.
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Gotta say guys, you aren't convincing me here.
Raso wrote:Well the feds dont like to evolve or build new suits.
<snip>
That and the events in 0083 put the federation at having next to nothing left and most of what was left was sent to the titans. (one of the ways 0083 tried to bridge the gap between the series)
Well, that's just an obvious falacy, since every series we see a new range of Federation suits. Zeta in perticular sees 3 different mass produced mainline MS operated by regular federation forces. Factor in the new type labs, and the Federation isn't exactly standing still or lacking in in MS.

Raso wrote: So with the titans dealing with the AEUG they can worm their way in get on somebody's side (on any side I dont think it would matter) blow up the other side, betray their current allys and they win or at least really close to winning. Worked pretty well since at the begining of ZZ the Titans are gone the AEUG is in no shape to fight a full scale war becides just 1 ship.
That explains their political plans, but not how they plan to deal with things militarily. Even at peak strength AEUG and the Titans probably would not have made a vast difference to the equation, simply because they both roughly a division worth of resources, not a fleet. They would not have made that much of a difference either way in a straight up fight.
Skippy438 wrote: believe the key word here is Zabi. Axis/Neo-Zeon have the last remaining member of a family that many spacenoids treated as royalty. Sure, Gihren and company were evil sadistic murderers, but at the end of the day I'd say they were still very well liked by the majority of the population of Side 3 at least. There's definitely a cult of personality in effect around that family.
Yes, but how do you account for the following: A) these colonies do not usually have military assests of their own and B) the massive numbers of people Zeon killed in the colony drop operations. I can imagine Side 3 leaping at the chance, though they don't have the military assets they once had. The wider colonies, mebbe not. I wouldn't be pleased in Zeon started up again if I lived in a colony. They tend to kill they people they want to liberate first.


I am right in thinking that the jist of it is still "the Federation are cowards, and the colonies love Zeon"? That's a fairly unimpressive rationalisation.
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However that's the way it is. In CCA they discuss how the Federation rules the people from Earth and how much the people living in the colonies resent the Feddies.

As for new Federation suits, not really. They mainly kept re-hashing the old GM models with a few upgrades and cosmetics. The Jagen isn't powerful enough to do much of a job(as is seen by the large number lost to Gera Dogas in CCA). Former Zeon pilots would jump at the chance to fight the Feddies again, and perhaps Anahiem was building suits for Axis? After all, they did build new MS for Char when he started the second neo-zeon war.

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LaBambaMan wrote:As for new Federation suits, not really. They mainly kept re-hashing the old GM models with a few upgrades and cosmetics. The Jagen isn't powerful enough to do much of a job(as is seen by the large number lost to Gera Dogas in CCA).
This is also the same case in F91. The Federation is still using the Jegan! God, they're lazy!
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LaBambaMan wrote: perhaps Anahiem was building suits for Axis?
like this one?

Maybe Haman was just counting on the disorganisation of the Federal forces following Gryps to blitz through any resistance and force a political settlement on her terms - and she almost got away with it. While the feds probably had enough forces on paper, with plenty of Salamis Kais and GM II/IIIs - I'd imagine they just couldn't be coordinated or deployed fast enough.

Considering the forces Axis brought to the Earth sphere: the monster that was the Gwadan, then later the Sadalahn and at least a handful of Endras all loaded up with highly advanced MS - this was probably seen as enough to wage the limited campaign Haman had in mind. We're not talking about a full-scale earth invasion like the OYW, but just strikes on key areas like Dakar - to influence the corrupt federation government, and the colony drop on Dublin - to show earthnoids Neo-Zeon meant buisness. Not a long drawn-out conflict, but a quick assault for immediate political payoff.
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How does Neo Zeon hope to win?

Superior weapons and planning can easily negate superior numbers. Neo Zeon is also (forcefully, since it's not exactly a democratic society) totally united and focused in its goal, while the Federation's reaction would/will be slowed because of their sprawling beaureacracy, even taking into consideration the unifying force a new war against Zeon would provide.

Neo Zeon also employs what is really a blitz attack on the Federal capital, which lets them cut through needless fighting around Earth in space and in the colonies. They're not attacking the Federation to get into a space- and earthwide war, they specifically attack Dakar and a few other areas to force the leaders there to bend to Haman's will.

It ends up not working because of the Gundam team and Karaba, but it wasn't a plan with no hope of success.
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Zero Revenge wrote:
LaBambaMan wrote:As for new Federation suits, not really. They mainly kept re-hashing the old GM models with a few upgrades and cosmetics. The Jagen isn't powerful enough to do much of a job(as is seen by the large number lost to Gera Dogas in CCA).
This is also the same case in F91. The Federation is still using the Jegan! God, they're lazy!
Neither of those statements is really correct. The Jegans in CCA, flown by Londo Bell, did very well against the Neo Zeons (Who had a roughly four-to-one advantage in numbers). In F91, the Jegan, while still in use, was on it's way out, with the Heavygun augmenting it and the Jamesgun and Javelin models in development. Anyway, back to the topic...
mutantshark wrote:Maybe Haman was just counting on the disorganisation of the Federal forces following Gryps to blitz through any resistance and force a political settlement on her terms - and she almost got away with it. While the feds probably had enough forces on paper, with plenty of Salamis Kais and GM II/IIIs - I'd imagine they just couldn't be coordinated or deployed fast enough.
The Federation was probably disorganized, and beaten up, to a decent extent after the Gryps War ended. There is also the fact that they may have simply just went turtle and hung back in the colonies or Luna or whatever bases they could (Konpeitoh Island and Luna II come to mind). Given that, and how shattered the AEUG was, the idea that Haman was counting on them not doing much (Or the Gundam Team going around doing what it did) does make sense.
Ork_dreadnought wrote:I can imagine Side 3 leaping at the chance, though they don't have the military assets they once had.


Ya know, this has me wondering. We know the Republic Of Zeon had a fairly sizeable military and supported the Titans (Who, like them, didn't want to see the Principality return) until the bitter end of the Gryps War, but I really wonder what the population thought; if they wanted the Principality to come back or not. I remember there was once some comments on what happened when Haman's forces took over Side 3 (I want to say the people weren't happy, but I honestly don't remember), but I can't find them. :|
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<reads though posts>

Ah, now it starts to make sense, thanks guys. I kind of assumed that there was some major plot hole I was missing, due to ZZ's reputation, but there's actually a credible plan here.
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I think one of the main factors is that the Federation, throughout the UC arc, has never recovered from the One Year War, and all subsequent Gundam series show that society in increasingly severe states of decay. Note that, as far as I can tell, no subsequent conflict ever reaches the scale of the OYW, nor do they have anywhere near the bodycount.

Also, the Gryps Conflict is an example of different factions within the Federal government warring with each other. Needless to say, when the military arms of political parties come to blows, a government is nearing the breaking point. Even if the conflict is more-or-less resolved, like in Operation Maelstrom, there becomes a fundamental lack of trust in the armed forces (warranted, too, judging from the New Desides and Aeno's revolt... but, that sort of distrust also breeds mutual feelings), strengthening any argument to keep them locked in their barracks and paid to parade.

Axis, though it has fresh military strength, being a city-state that wasn't pulled into the One Year War, is also filled with rookies. I'd expect its population is greater than the average colony, but it can't be by much. Haman was likely counting on two things, the discontent of the colonists in the Sides, and the weakness of the Federation both leftover from the One Year War and from the Gryps Conflict. Truth is, she judged correctly, since the Federation was more than willing to strike a deal with her, feeling either that they lacked the vigor or the loyalty in their military to adequately combat her. When it comes right down to it, Neo Zeon's imperial ambitions were destroyed only because of internal conflict.

In both that conflict and Char's asteroid drop operations, the Federation has avoided use of its main fleets until the last possible minute. Instead, they farmed off the dirty work to Londo Bell (a tactic that continues to Unicorn, from the looks of it), underestimating the strength and, more importantly, the dedication of Neo Zeon's continual resurgences. This is how Char, with a fleet of thirteen ships and less than a hundred mobile suits, was able to accomplish his objectives. I don't know the strength of Full Frontal's forces, but I imagine it to be comparable.

By the time the Crossbone Vanguard seizes Frontier Side, I think the Federation had basically restricted itself to being an Earth-only government, even though it was still nominally the government of the Earth Sphere and, after the Oldsmobile incidents, had its capitol on the moon. Considering its path in this way, G Saviour's idea of the Federation collapsing in favor of CONSENT is less likely than the Federation just outright collapsing into a series of nation-states, like the Sides had already divided themselves into. The Warring States period, which had already started, would likely persist until the need for a new Earth Sphere government arose... that or the people of Earth just knocked themselves back out of space...

That was long and possibly confusing, but those are my thoughts on the subject...
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Kenji wrote:Axis, though it has fresh military strength, being a city-state that wasn't pulled into the One Year War, is also filled with rookies.
That's because the majority of the population were Principality soldiers and citizens who fled Side 3 after the OYW.
Kenji wrote:I'd expect its population is greater than the average colony, but it can't be by much.
Actually, it's far smaller. A normal space colony can hold between three and ten million people, only about 30,000 people made it to Axis, and, as I understand it, conditions weren't great or comparable to a colony.
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mcred23 wrote:
Kenji wrote:I'd expect its population is greater than the average colony, but it can't be by much.
Actually, it's far smaller. A normal space colony can hold between three and ten million people, only about 30,000 people made it to Axis, and, as I understand it, conditions weren't great or comparable to a colony.
Wow, really? That's quite remarkable.
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Zero Revenge wrote:Wow, really? That's quite remarkable.
Yep. However, upon their return to Earth Sphere in UC 0087, I'd expect that a good deal of the young, military age men (Guys who were just a bit too young to fight in the OYW) were put into military service and sent into combat (And to die, as those Gaza-C's and their pilots weren't all that good).
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Ya know, this has me wondering. We know the Republic Of Zeon had a fairly sizeable military and supported the Titans (Who, like them, didn't want to see the Principality return) until the bitter end of the Gryps War, but I really wonder what the population thought; if they wanted the Principality to come back or not. I remember there was once some comments on what happened when Haman's forces took over Side 3 (I want to say the people weren't happy, but I honestly don't remember), but I can't find them. Neutral
Mark (toysdream) have mentioned that the Zabi supporters were all but purged from Side 3 by the time of Zeta. So much that it tied up large amount of Haman's forces.

As for the Jagan, I don't understand why it has such a wretched reputation, in CCA it outperformed Geara Dogas.
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saneman wrote:Mark (toysdream) have mentioned that the Zabi supporters were all but purged from Side 3 by the time of Zeta. So much that it tied up large amount of Haman's forces.
Yeah, I thought it was something like that, but couldn't find the post(s) where it was.
saneman wrote:As for the Jagan, I don't understand why it has such a wretched reputation, in CCA it outperformed Geara Dogas.
It is a very underserved reputation, although the base for that probably is it's woefully thin armor and poor showing in F91 (Although both things can be easily explained; it's ment to have thin armor since it's designed to fight MS, which it does well, and it was in the process of being replaced in F91, so they knew how old it was).
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Zero Revenge wrote:
mcred23 wrote:
Kenji wrote:I'd expect its population is greater than the average colony, but it can't be by much.
Actually, it's far smaller. A normal space colony can hold between three and ten million people, only about 30,000 people made it to Axis, and, as I understand it, conditions weren't great or comparable to a colony.
Wow, really? That's quite remarkable.
If that's the case, I'm gonna have to retract my previous comment. This like Bravaria challenging China, and China taking them seriously. It also raises all kinds of problems with logistics. How could this small amount of people credibly produce and maintain as many mobile suits as it did, and still have a functional economy? Fanticism only goes so far. Something more beleivible would be Axis functioning as focal point for terrorism (in fact the very thing the titans were supposed to fight).
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In terms of the Jegan, I suppose it's because the Federation was more about quantity and low-cost while Neo Zeon (1 and 2), being the much smaller force, could afford to put much more quality into their MS, hence why so many of Neo Zeon's MS have a lot more weaponry, advanced and/or numerically. Even some with plans of mass production (or did see some limited mass production) like the Qubeley, Dooben Wolf and Geymalk; units that would most likely never have any thoughts of mass production with the Federation. The closest possible mass production powerhouse MS I've seen for them being the Mass Production Type Nu Gundam, which was canned. Others were only limited like the Ground Combat Gundam and the F91.

Of course, the Federation does have a tendency to go stagnant after a period of time without any large-scale conflicts, so while they did have the Jamesgun and Javelin on the way in F91, they didn't have anything new by the time the Zanscare Empire came around 30 years later.


In addition to what was said, we also can't forget how manipulative and deceptive Haman can be. I mean, playing the Titans and AEUG forces against eachother with "alliances" and such while she primarily just stood behind as backup in some way and watched them obliterate eachother's forces, leaving whoever is left as easy pickings for her. Not to mention how naive and gullible the Federation bigwigs are. I mean, they think if they give Haman Side 3, then she won't do anything against them. Then only 4 years later, Char comes along and they think if they sell him Axis, a GIANT ASTEROID, then he'll stop DROPPING ASTEROIDS onto the Earth and surrender all his forces to them, just like that.
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Haman's deceptiveness only goes so far. Her main achievement was that she carefully selected the correct time to make her entrance, a time when the Federation was more concerned with licking its own wounds and, I wouldn't doubt, trying to repair its shattered economy. The various Gundam series do nothing to address this, but I'd imagine that the entire production cycle was devastated during the One Year War, and a mere seven years is not enough time to put it back together.

If the Federation had the desire to do so, their forces, as bled dry as they were (seven years isn't enough time to replace all the soldiers lost in the OYW, either), would be more than enough to eliminate Neo Zeon. However, the Federal leaders make a few erroneous assumptions. Primarily, they assume the Neo Zeon leaders act as they would: making campaign promises that they have no intention of keeping (assuming, I think with good reason, that Federal politicians act like our politicians). When hearing Haman's Earth-stomping rhetoric and Char promising to put the big hurt on Lhasa, they probably shrugged it off as an empty promise designed to win the hearts of the masses. After all, when Hitler promised to rid the world of the Jews, nobody took him seriously... because nobody thought that civilized Germany could do so barbaric a thing (hindsight is 20/20, and incredulity is a fanatic's best ally).

What they failed to realize is that, although Haman and Char were using their positions to further other goals (personal power and revenge, respectively), these two were willing to go much farther than the average Earth politician to achieve them. After all, if something gets dropped on Earth, neither of them will feel the impact, nor will their constituency. It's a move that's expected of them because, to an extent, it doesn't have the sort of immediate risk that an Earth politician promoting the same thing would have to deal with. Also, they are the heads of smaller organizations, and smaller organizations - especially ones headed by a single person - have more immediate ways of deposing their leaders (like Glemy's attempt at a coup d'etat, something that could never have been repeated exactly in the Federation, if only for its sheer size).

These were factors the Federal leadership failed to take into account and, given the nature of democracies, memories are short. Sure, us viewers see the writing on the wall, but as far as anyone in-universe was concerned, Haman and Char (despite their harsher moments of rhetoric) were only interested in a similar independence movement that Zeon Deikun espoused and, hyper-conservative warhawks like the Titans aside, the Federation wasn't interested in another war. After the bloodbath of the OYW, they would take any step to avoid war at nearly any cost, even willing to shrug off the deaths of lower-class citizens to keep up the not-at-war footing.

With that in mind, it doesn't matter how small Axis is. After all, who's going to oppose them? The Titans, with their eviscerated fleet and lack of support from the Federal government? The AEUG, which was in nearly as bad a shape, with only an orphan-staffed Argama and other, less notable ships to its name (pursuing the Argama, when it came down to it, was likely for the prize of taking Char Aznable's ship)? The Federation, which didn't make a single move throughout the Gryps Conflict and therefore had made its aversion to war obvious? Haman had the Earth Sphere by the proverbial balls, and it didn't matter how large or experienced her forces were, or even how good the mobile suits were, because there was no credible opposition.

After all, it was Neo Zeon that destroyed Neo Zeon, and without that, there would doubtlessly have been a new Principality.
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If that's the case, I'm gonna have to retract my previous comment. This like Bravaria challenging China, and China taking them seriously. It also raises all kinds of problems with logistics. How could this small amount of people credibly produce and maintain as many mobile suits as it did, and still have a functional economy? Fanticism only goes so far. Something more beleivible would be Axis functioning as focal point for terrorism (in fact the very thing the titans were supposed to fight).
It seems Haman knew all of this ahead of time, which is why she tried to conserve her forces. She played the Titans and AEUG off of each other, which ended in both being destroyed. The Federation had a great chunk of its fleet tied up in the Titans, so they took a hit, too.

Granted, the Feds still had some firepower, which was why Haman cut through the fat and went straight for the heart. It's been said before, but notice how Haman is all about little wasted effort. Neo Zeon blitzes Dakar and drops a colony. There's also talk of trying to seize the nuclear stockpile at Luna II. While it didn't work, it would have given the number-deprived Neo Zeon one hell of an ace in the hole. We don't see her trying to establish military dominance with drawn out fleet battles or laying siege to the likes of Luna II. She was striking at the Federation as fast and hard as she could.

Really, I agree with you in that Axis never had much of a chance. Even if everything went smoothly, the EFF/AEUG forces were moving in on Side 3 to attack Haman's admittedly small fleet. Still, I commend Haman for making the most of her situation. She knew exactly how to play the people of the Earth Sphere to her advantage beyond a few critical exceptions.
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