Really good editorial on the state of anime

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MrMarch
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Someone watched the Enron documentary (a very good film, IMO) :)

I actually believe better partnerships and investment between the Japanese and the United States anime industries would be great. Much of the anime industry in Japan already relies upon foreign investment to enjoy higher anime production budgets. A stronger relationship can only mean good things, IMO.
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If we're talking about The Smartest Guys In The Room, I have it on DVD... spent a "happy" couple of months writing a research proposal on Enron and their dubious economic practices earlier this year...

But anyways. The editorial does make for a fascinating read, as do the comments here. It seems Japanese anime studios have a far easier time than Enron using the mark-to-market system, especially ones with Stateside satellites in place (like Bandai) which can pretty much browbeat the foreign subdivision into buying the liscence for a series which will fill the hole in their balance sheets. It's the kind of deficit spending which is fairly common in government-level economics, but it's a risky affair on a corporate level... with the market for anime reaching its saturation point, and an increasing level of poorer-quality titles flooding the US and European markets, borrowing against future earnings becomes a questionable way of doing business.

I can see that backfiring on the Japanese studios within the next five years or so, particularly given the ongoing decline of the US Dollar in currency markets; if it becomes more expensive for American distributors to pick up the title, companies will be far less willing to pick up any anime Japan throws at them, and if the Japanese studios are banking on recouping their deficit spending from those liscences... problems arise. So really, the future of anime in America particularly relies on either 1) a major recovery by the Dollar, or 2) a significantly revised business model for anime studios in Japan.

(This post thrown together while avoiding writing an essay on UK Economic Policy... :roll: )
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foxpaws
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So the business practice that the Japanese entertainment companies engage in has a formal name. I learn something new every day!

Given that this 'mark-to-market' was one of the reasons why Geneon USA closed shop, and that BEI is barely hanging by a thread, I'd say that the backfire is happening right now, not five years from now.

I don't think that improved relations between the Japanese companies and their overseas subsidiaries is likely anytime soon, given that the former frequently do not see the latter as equals. Beyond that, there's the tendency of departments within a company to look out for their own backsides for the short term, even if it harms the company as a whole in the long run.

In this particular case, it comes down to the animation studios wanting to cover their production budgets just to survive each quarter and not go under, even if some of the employees realize that doing so erodes their overseas revenue source in the long run.

-- Keith
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foxpaws wrote:Given that this 'mark-to-market' was one of the reasons why Geneon USA closed shop, and that BEI is barely hanging by a thread, I'd say that the backfire is happening right now, not five years from now.

I don't think that improved relations between the Japanese companies and their overseas subsidiaries is likely anytime soon, given that the former frequently do not see the latter as equals. Beyond that, there's the tendency of departments within a company to look out for their own backsides for the short term, even if it harms the company as a whole in the long run.
Based on what you've said earlier in this topic, and more significantly in the latter paragraph here, I'm making the "within five years" estimate on the basis that it'll take that long for the big bosses in Japan to actually cotton on to what they're doing to their overseas investments thanks to their current business practices... this goes especially for the bigger companies like Bandai, where sheer inertia keeps things going down the "business as usual" route until something drastic - especially a drastic change in the balance sheet - forces a response.
foxpaws wrote:In this particular case, it comes down to the animation studios wanting to cover their production budgets just to survive each quarter and not go under, even if some of the employees realize that doing so erodes their overseas revenue source in the long run.
And here lies the problem. This model actively defies one of the most basic economic principles: If you can't afford to compete, get out of the market. I do sympathise with these companies wanting to be able to pay their regular-salaryman staff, but if the only way to do that is to engage in short-term "grab it while we still can" profiteering, then those staff aren't going to have jobs for too much longer anyway...
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Gundam Genki
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First of all, and off-topic: I really like the site, and have been a frequent visitor for a few years. And now a member.

More on-topic:
I think the main problems in countries where anime isn't that big are availability and pricing. If I go to the largest DVD-shop in a good 50 km radius, I won't find more than a handful worth of titles.
And if the one I'm looking for is among them, it's price borders on insanity and even still the DVD only contains a few episodes of the series I want.

Mind you, I've never gotten that far... I live in the north of the Netherlands. And the closest place I've seen a shop with an anime-section, was in northern FRANCE.

I know there probably is an anime-shop closer to my home, but still. I've thought about buying a Gundam series. The 8th MS team to be precise. I've yet to find it in a shop. And if I find it, I can almost guarantee that I will find it too expensive.

Gundam Wing actually aired over here... And I've watched it, it introduced me to Gundam. Unfortunately the anime-hour disappeared from the TV with the demise of the station airing it. Only the Pokémon and the likes remain on the kids-stations.
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Unfortunatly, a person with passion may not be reasonable. Only a cold hearted money man will make the most profitable decision.

And Bandai will not be a leading toy maker if they just keep doing the same thing. Look at Power Rangers and Masked Riders. Bandai are using all these outlets for people to buy their toys. And of course Gundams.

And as for animes, Bandai visual did work with some overseas company to produce a 'anime-like' (?) cartoon. A good example is Oban Star Racer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%8Cban_Star-Racers

In fact, this model is use in music and gmes industry. The big players will get stale with doing the 'markable' things. It will take a small independent company that will come out with something new. And the big players, (Time Warner, Sony, Vivendi, Electronic Arts) actually sponsers smaller 'independent' company to try to have some new, exciting and profitable ideas.

Sorry. I've side tracked.

So far, no one have come outh with a good way to combat illegeal dowload. And this is the heart of the problem.
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Adobe Photoshop is pirated so heavily that the ratio of illegal to legal copies is estimated at 10 to 1. The combination of the outrageous price tag and the wonders of the internet make Photoshop an ideal candidate for piracy. And yet Adobe has been doing rather well for itself.

A company doesn't have to eradicate piracy to be profitable. If you limit your catalog to products that people really want, you'll usually find that there are enough people out there willing to do the right thing and pay, which in turn will keep your finances in good health. Even in the face of rampant piracy, A-list titles published in N. America find enough legit buyers to achieve decent profit.

If the N. American anime industry is in trouble, it's because their parent companies forced them to sell way too much crap, and the losses from the crappy properties eradicated the profits made from the aforementioned A-list titles. If the N. American companies were free to pick and choose only titles with good profit potential, I guarantee you that they would all be operating small but profitable businesses. A recent article I read hits the nail on the head: there's a subtle distinction between trying to force people to pay, and people wanting to pay you for your products.

A major fallacy on the part of entertainment companies is to think that if piracy is eradicated, people will actually buy the crap. That's not how things work. The solution isn't to combat piracy - the solution is to limit one's scope to products that thrive in the face of piracy. Put differently, limit one's offerings to products that are so good that enough decent people don't want to pirate them. (Well, I suppose that might be considered a form of combating piracy, but it's not what comes to the minds of most companies when they think about ways to fight piracy. Apparently it's easier to hire lawyers than it is to hire great talent.)

This in turn would require that we ask the Japanese entertainment companies to stop shoving crap down the throats of their N. American business partners. But we know that's not going to happen, so we're effectively left with no solution.

(And really, did anybody expect a silver bullet to materialize from a fan forum discussion?) ;)

-- Keith
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Gundam Genki
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Isn't Adobe Photoshop a bad example? It's target group is graphic companies. As a company, you cannot pirate things, so you buy it. Adobe actually doesn't care about the pirating, it makes people familiar with the program, so they tell their boss to get it, there's the profit. People are skilled with the program from hobby, so companies get it to evade training costs (which make Adobe Photoshop itself seem cheap).

A franchise like Gundam doesn't have that option. They purely gain marketshare (which is the prime economic drive in Japan, NOT profit, business in Japan wants to have a large marketshare, as long as they're not going in the reds, that's all there is to it), which makes them somewhat more resilient to piracy, but not much. They view every pirated copy of their show as a potential customer, capable of enlarging their marketshare.

The main problem is however, that as we see it, they actually want us to buy something. And that is where the price comes in. Whatever they may say. If they keep pricing their products that high, people won't buy it anyway. That's the main problem in shelf media today. Distributors ask extreme prices, and then wonder why their customers are not buying...
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Gundam Genki wrote:Isn't Adobe Photoshop a bad example? It's target group is graphic companies. As a company, you cannot pirate things, so you buy it. Adobe actually doesn't care about the pirating, it makes people familiar with the program, so they tell their boss to get it, there's the profit. People are skilled with the program from hobby, so companies get it to evade training costs (which make Adobe Photoshop itself seem cheap).
No, the example works perfectly well. Lots of people use Photoshop, so it's a mistake to think it's only targeted at "graphic companies." Also, not to sound insulting or anything, but the idea that companies can't pirate things is pretty naive. It happens all the time. I worked for a company where every single computer had pirated copies of Windows and Office, and I've known of other companies where it's very common.
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It depends how much money will the whistle blower will get. Here, they may get up to $20,000. So most company will try to avoid that.

BTY, if you read the fine prints, it's legal to make copies. But you need the license to use it. Like wise, if I buy a music CD, I could make copies of it. But I cannot distribute it.

Another factor we did not touch on it sites like youtube, amine6 and movie6. They get away with piratecy as we cannot download or copy from it. But if I watch a movie on movie6, I may not want to get to the theater or get a DVD.
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foxpaws
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Admittedly, Photoshop isn't the best example, in that its price point is several orders of magnitude higher than the average anime title, and its economy of scale is significantly different compared to the average anime title on DVD.

Still, the point that I was trying to make is that a product can thrive in the face of piracy if it sells enough copies for the business to achieve profit, and the best way to do that is to ensure that the product is so good that enough people want to pay you for it. Emphasis on 'enough.'

Granted, a niche market product is more likely to feel the effects of piracy than a product that enjoys a significantly larger market, but this makes it even more important to focus on quality over quantity. Sadly, the tendency of most entertainment companies is to think that releasing more products will result in more profit, regardless of how poor said products may be.

-- Keith
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foxpaws wrote:Granted, a niche market product is more likely to feel the effects of piracy than a product that enjoys a significantly larger market, but this makes it even more important to focus on quality over quantity. Sadly, the tendency of most entertainment companies is to think that releasing more products will result in more profit, regardless of how poor said products may be.

-- Keith
But this will not stop illgeal download. I've known people who will dowload as much as his hard disk could take. How do you listen to 20,000 songs that has been downloaded from Kazza or Limewire? And this could be the same in amine. I think the volume of download is a form of bragging right.
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foxpaws
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I don't believe for a minute that, if a company releases an A+ product, there will be zero piracy of the title. Piracy isn't an all-or-nothing deal. Naturally, there are cheapskates who will pirate no matter what, and there are boy scouts who buy 99% of the products they own and shun piracy as unethical. But a lot of people fall somewhere in the middle: they may BitTorrent shows that they do not feel like paying for, but when encountered with a really good title they reach into their wallets to buy the real thing.

The difference between deluging a marketplace with poor titles, and focusing only on quality titles, is also the difference between losing and winning that last crowd of people who are sitting on the fence. If you can win this crowd over with a quality title, then said title will generate profit despite the cheapskate "we pirate everything" crowd. Bebop, Escaflowne, and Ghost in the Shell all generated profit in the face of rampant piracy, because enough decent fans looked at these titles and said "wow, I gotta own the DVDs!"

If the entertainment company's stance is to say "we want people to stop pirating and pay for our crap," my retort would be to say "stop producing so much crap, and enough of us will buy the worthwhile stuff to keep you profitable."

-- Keith
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Great thread, particularly Keith's posts. You've articulated so well what I've always felt is the heart of the problem, not the piracy, but the japanese companies themselves and the lower quality products that they've been creating, then forcing into the North American market.
The biggest question that Griepp thinks is currently facing the industry has to do with whether the core of American anime fans will disappear. He does not think so, at least not in the short run, but nonetheless, the current business model of selling anime is being challenged, and will have to change.
The one thing I gotta disagree with Griepp on is that I do feel that as the years goes by the fandom will erode. As anime fans grow older, graduate from college, start their careers, make large purchases like automobiles or homes, start families, etc... the interest will wane. Not for everyone, but it will for many. Certainly has happened to me. The key is finding the new fans to replace those people with, and I feel that in this much less friendly TV environment that we are in now compared to say 2000/2001 when I joined the fandom, it will be a lot tougher to find those people. I got into anime because I randomly saw Gundam Wing on TV one day by found it interesting enough to stick with it and eventually get into other things. Less anime and lesser quality anime on american TV will reduce the chances of such circumstances happening going forward.

And no, I have no solution to the problem, unfortunately. I'd be rich and the industry's problems would be fixed if I did! :P
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I'll admit, some stuff I have watched online, but that's mainly due to me not being interested in anime already available and having my tastes set on other content. Nonetheless, if I like something, I buy it, and fortunately, there is often something available to purchase for someone like me.
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foxpaws
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Back when I was employed at Bandai, their video game division asked for my input in distributing UC.net (a Gundam MMO) in the N. American market. The game was so poor that I refused to lend it any support. When asked why, I explained that just because I'm a Gundam fan doesn't mean I'll buy any Gundam game - I wanted a good Gundam game. Their reaction was one of bewilderment: "What do you mean, it isn't good? It's Gundam!"

The MMO failed to make money even in Gundam's home territory of Japan, which is saying something. Operations were shut down last month. While this anecdote deals with the Gundam brand, I think the aforementioned attitude best sums up the problem with the Japanese entertainment industry in general.

A company exists to make money, no question. But it's one thing to focus on quality and have customers wanting to pay you, and another thing to focus on money and wanting customers to pay you. With regards to the anime industry, I fear that there is too much of the latter going on, and not enough of the former.

What we need are companies who are willing to take a step back, take some creative risks, and put the focus back on the quality of the product. I'd suggest that the content providers look at themselves in the mirror, and honestly ask themselves if they're doing their best to turn out quality products that deserve to be bought. If not, then they shouldn't act so shocked that consumers refuse to be suckered.

-- Keith

PS: I'm not saying "if a title is crap, pirate it." I'm saying "if a title is crap, flat-out avoid it." It's human nature to blame someone else for your own failings; if a title fails to make money and is heavily pirated, the instinct is to blame piracy rather than the quality of the title. But if a title fails to make money and doesn't gain any traction via torrents, then the companies might think that their product is so poor that people won't even watch it for free, and they wouldn't be able to blame piracy as the reason for not achieving profit on the title. Instead of saying "the torrent is there, and eh I'm bored," don't give them any satisfaction.
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V2Buster
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you would hope at some point companies like BVUSA would see that they present a very poor entertainment value with their cost per disc/episode per disc ratio compared with everything else you can find in the TV series aisle at the local big box.

But hey, obviously marketing a competitive product isn't a smart idea, what do I know, right?
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You and everyone else is asking that same question.

And I never thought I'd actually see you here, V2. o.O
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V2Buster wrote:you would hope at some point companies like BVUSA would see that they present a very poor entertainment value with their cost per disc/episode per disc ratio compared with everything else you can find in the TV series aisle at the local big box.

But hey, obviously marketing a competitive product isn't a smart idea, what do I know, right?
It's something that one can't really answer without knowing the details of money flow, but my guess is that it comes from the very large inherent weakness in licensing - an anime gets released in Japan, and makes money according to its popularity in Japan, and then when that anime gets licensed out to American companies, the price is likely based on its Japanese popularity, despite the fact that there is a very low chance of that anime being as popular in America as it is in Japan, meaning that the licensors may decide that they probably won't be able to make a decent profit margin cramming as many episodes as can fit on each DVD and then selling each disc at prices we consider reasonable. They thusly decide to put less episodes on each DVD and price each disc higher, which in turn alienates customers who feel that they should not be paying that much for that few episodes, which hurts sales, and in the end the licensor comes away grumbling about how the whole thing turned out barely profitable, and the whole cycle repeats till the licensor folds or quits.

Honestly, though, I'd like to blame part of the decline on the way television (especially Cartoon Network) has treated anime. A dozen years ago, most of us would get home from school and watch Dragonball Z, Gundam Wing, and other such exciting shows on Toonami five days a week, and quite a few people got into anime that way. Now, however, the last time I watched Cartoon Network (a year or two ago, so this might've changed) Toonami aired once a week (on Saturday nights, no less), while most of the good anime got shunted into Adult Swim, and it shouldn't take a rocket scientist to realize that spending loads of money to license something immensely popular like Bleach and then airing it at 2am is not a winning business plan.
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foxpaws
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The number of episodes per disc is frequently mandated by the licensor. That's the main reason why BEI was forced to release Blue Submarine No. 6 as one episode per disc, even though BEI told Sunrise that it would hurt sales.

Why do they do this? It's a combination of thinking that what works in Japan will also work in N. America, false hopes that the show will be just as successful in N. America as it is in Japan, and just pure greed.

Addendum: with regards to Cartoon Network's programming line-up, I can't fault them for following the trends (and thus the money) rather than doing what pleases anime fans, if doing the latter generates them less revenue.

I don't know what kind of arrangements exist between Cartoon Network and other content providers, but in the case of anime shows Cartoon Network typically gets a cut of the anime company's revenue on a given title. In the case of Gundam Wing, it was a cut of the revenue from toys, gun-pla, DVDs, and video games.

The downturn in the N. American anime market means less revenue generated by anime companies, which in turn means less money for Cartoon Network under a revenue sharing agreement. Unless the brand in question has a significant revenue stream, such as Naruto, most anime titles as of late simply do not generate enough revenue to make it worthwhile for Cartoon Network, at least not for the most favorable slots.

Speaking of time slots, there's a direct correlation between the amount of money that Cartoon Network stands to make, and the time slot that is given to an anime show. Even for a show that is considered a fan-favorite, if the revenue-share agreement doesn't stand to make Cartoon Network a lot of money - or put differently, the anime licensor didn't want to fork over a lot of money - then don't be too shocked if the show winds up in a 2AM slot...

-- Keith
Last edited by foxpaws on Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:30 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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