Battle of Loum theory

[RoosAuec]

Hey, I'm new to the forum, and I hope I'm not breaking any rules by posting this topic. I've been researching the Battle of Loum for personal reasons, and I've managed to create what I believe is a comprehensive timeline based on all the information given. I thought you guys might be interested in hearing how I think the battle went down, so, here.

Battle of Loum (Earth Federation vs. Zeon)

Zeon objective: Trick Federation forces into large scale space battle to test Mobile Suit abilities.

Enemy assets:

45 Magellan-class battleships
90 Salamis-class cruisers
120 missile frigates (Assuming possible precursors to Public-class)
90 Columbus-class supply ships

Friendly assets:

15 Gwazine-class battleships
30 Musai-class cruisers
40 Jico-class assault boats
30 Papua-class supply ships
390-450 Mobile Suits, a mix between Zaku-Is and Zaku-IIs (Exact numbers are unclear; Musais can hold anywhere from 3-5 mobile suits, depending on loose pack and tight pack. )
1 Jormungand prototype mobile fleet cannon

History:

- After the failure of Operation British, Zeon forces feed Federation forces information saying that they'll be attempting another colony drop, and will capture Side 5 to do it.
- Admiral Tianem's Fleet moves to reinforce General Revil, who is already stationed at Side 5 for protection. General Revil's fleet rivals the Zeon fleet, and is half the size of Admiral Tianem's.
- Kycilia Zabi deploys a Zaku diversionary force to Side 5, in order to cause trouble in the hopes of drawing in Revil's fleet. But Revil sees through the ploy, and requests that Tianem helps Side 5.
- Dozle Zabi splits his forces into two. The first force is comprised of all the ships under his command, the second force is all the Mobile Suits. The first force will engage Revil's fleet, and the second force will engage Tianem's.
- The Jourmangand was supposed to be tested this battle, and relied on observational data given by forward units. But command wanted to try and wipe out the enemy fleet using mobile suits, and gave the Jourmangand no observational data with which to work.
- Dozle's fleet moves in to Side 5, and engages Revil's fleet head on. While the Musais outrange the Salamis cruisers, the Magellans outrange the Musais. The Gwazines outrange the Magellans, but without cruiser support from the Musais, his fleet is tattered. Dozle Zabi is forced to retreat, and link up with the second force to attack Tianem.
- Dozle manages to ambush Tianem, whose ships don't see any Zeon forces until they're in visual range. Zeon forces unleash a barrage of cannon fire on Tianem's fleet, and the Mobile Suits take advantage of the confusion, and strike.
- Dozle's remaining ships, with a lot of help from the mobile suits, mop up Tianem's fleet. Because Tianem never arrives at Side 5, the Mobile Suits deployed by Kycilia manage to capture General Revil. Famous mobile suit pilots such as Char Aznable, Ramba Ral, and the Black Tri-stars make a name for themselves in this battle.
- The battle ends in victory for the Zeon forces, but Dozle Zabi's failure in attacking General Revil's fleet could've easily been avoided. Revil obviously had time to prepare for battle, and position his ships in a defensive formation around Side 5. If Dozle had used the Jourmungand to pick off some of the Magellans, the battle would've resulted in a total victory for Zeon.

[Sabersonic]

Sounds more like the timeline for the Igloo version than what many would consider the "accepted" version of the Battle of Loum, Sunrise officialism rules aside.

[toysdream]

It looks like RoosAuec is going mostly by the depiction of the battle in the Gundam The Origin comic, with a little bit of MS Igloo thrown in. Of all the conflicting accounts of the battle, those seem like the strongest bits of evidence to me, since one of them is official animation and the other soon will be. The idea that Zeon actually began a second colony drop, as per Gundam Century and Entertainment Bible 39, is incompatible with these sources and thus seems pretty unfounded.

In general, I think RoosAuec's outline makes sense. This is basically the sequence of events in The Origin, with a couple of alterations...

* In The Origin, Tianem's fleet is holding the fort at Side 5, and Revil's larger fleet is launched from Earth to join it. Putting Revil's fleet at Side 5, however, lets us be consistent with the claims in Tomino's novels and the MSV series.

* RoosAuec doesn't mention where Tianem's fleet comes from. But if we're trying to be compatible with MS Igloo, then logically this should be the main Federation fleet that was previously hiding at Luna II, rather than a reserve fleet launched from Earth. In The Origin, Tianem isn't involved in Operation British. But if we were going with EB 39's idea that Tianem led the attempt to stop the first colony drop then there may not be time for him to get back to Luna II, organize a new fleet, and travel all the way to Side 5 in just a few days. In that case somebody else might need to command that Luna II fleet...

* In The Origin, Kycilia doesn't command any forces in the Battle of Loum. Having seized Granada, she then sits out the Side 5 battle while Dozle runs everything. In the previous anime continuity, it's been established that the Black Tri-Stars and Johnny Ridden (for example) were part of Kycilia's Mobile Assault Force, and so their exploits (such as capturing General Revil) should be part of Kycilia's operations. So putting Revil at Side 5, and having Kycilia's forces attack it, satisfies that condition nicely.

* 15 Gwazines, however, seems excessive. In The Origin, Zeon only has one at this point (the Great Degwin) and it's nowhere near the battle; EB 1 says they have three Gwazines at Loum, EB 39 says four, and we see two in MS Igloo. On the whole, the range advantage of the Magellans should be overwhelming as depicted in MS Igloo and The Origin, leaving the Zeons hopelessly outmatched in fleet battle.

* I assume that RoosAuec came up with this tally of Zeon forces simply by taking The Origin's breakdown of the Federation fleet and swapping in the corresponding Zeon ships. It might be better, though, to aim for a similar total number of ships and adjust the mix of types, or choose a published source that seems more plausible. For example, Entertainment Bible 1 lists the Zeon strength at "3 Gwazine-class battleships, 12 Chivvay-class heavy cruisers, 39 Musai-class light cruisers, 1 Dolos-class carrier, and 87 medium and small vessels." Putting aside the Dolos, that sounds about right.

* During the battle, most sources (including MS Igloo and The Origin) agree that Dozle's fleet transferred all its Zakus to supply ships, with none remaining aboard the fleet's regular warships. The Origin shows a detached battalion of six Papuas with about nine Zakus each, escorted by two Musais; EB 39 says 22 Papuas, each of which can supposedly carry 20 mobile suits (which seems really implausible). That would come to roughly 60 mobile suits in The Origin, and up to 440 as per EB 39, depending on how seriously we take its claims about the Papua's capacity.

-- Mark

[RoosAuec]

Thanks for your input, Mark. My ultimate goal with this is to come up with an account of the Battle of Loum that is consistent with as many canon sources as possible, and can be seen as the most logical and widely accepted evaluation. With the information you provide, I can refine my assessment a little.

* In The Origin, Tianem's fleet is holding the fort at Side 5, and Revil's larger fleet is launched from Earth to join it. Putting Revil's fleet at Side 5, however, lets us be consistent with the claims in Tomino's novels and the MSV series.

That's pretty much exactly what I was going for by putting Revil at Side 5. And if you look at it from a military standpoint, it wouldn't make sense for Revil, who is a General, to have more ships than Tianem, who is an Admiral. I was forced to conclude that Revil was at Side 5, despite The Origins account.

* RoosAuec doesn't mention where Tianem's fleet comes from. But if we're trying to be compatible with MS Igloo, then logically this should be the main Federation fleet that was previously hiding at Luna II, rather than a reserve fleet launched from Earth. In The Origin, Tianem isn't involved in Operation British. But if we were going with EB 39's idea that Tianem led the attempt to stop the first colony drop then there may not be time for him to get back to Luna II, organize a new fleet, and travel all the way to Side 5 in just a few days. In that case somebody else might need to command that Luna II fleet...

I'm going with the idea that Tianem isn't involved in Operation British, and is leading the Luna II fleet in this timeline. EB 39 states that Zeon tried a second colony drop, but that idea just raises too many questions, so I'm a bit skeptical about the information it gives me as a whole. This means that I'm assuming it's wrong in saying Tianem was leading the deflection mission in Operation British, and in reality, it might be led by someone else.

* In The Origin, Kycilia doesn't command any forces in the Battle of Loum. Having seized Granada, she then sits out the Side 5 battle while Dozle runs everything. In the previous anime continuity, it's been established that the Black Tri-Stars and Johnny Ridden (for example) were part of Kycilia's Mobile Assault Force, and so their exploits (such as capturing General Revil) should be part of Kycilia's operations. So putting Revil at Side 5, and having Kycilia's forces attack it, satisfies that condition nicely.

My exact mentality in having Kycilia send a diversion to Side 5. The fact that the one in charge of defenses at Side 5 sees it as only a diversion lends credence to the fact that the one stationed there is Revil. Being that one of his key characteristics appears to be excellent strategy, it would make sense that he was the one who saw through Zeon's diversion.

* 15 Gwazines, however, seems excessive. In The Origin, Zeon only has one at this point (the Great Degwin) and it's nowhere near the battle; EB 1 says they have three Gwazines at Loum, EB 39 says four, and we see two in MS Igloo. On the whole, the range advantage of the Magellans should be overwhelming as depicted in MS Igloo and The Origin, leaving the Zeons hopelessly outmatched in fleet battle.

It's this point where I should thank you the most. Most of my knowledge of Zeon's assets comes from MS Igloo, and as you later state, I got my numbers by assumptions based on previous statements. I really doubt any info coming from EB 39 on the Battle of Loum is accurate, given all the contradictions I come across, so I was quick to disregard it. As for Origins, I knew for a fact that Zeon had at least one Gwazine at the battle, yet I didn't see one there when I read it, so I assumed the ones there were just off panel. And it makes absolutely no sense to engage a large fleet without a powerful ship like a carrier or battleship at your back. Granted, it has happened historically, but mostly in do-or-die situations, and this was supposed to be a meticulously planned assault by Zeon.

* I assume that RoosAuec came up with this tally of Zeon forces simply by taking The Origin's breakdown of the Federation fleet and swapping in the corresponding Zeon ships. It might be better, though, to aim for a similar total number of ships and adjust the mix of types, or choose a published source that seems more plausible. For example, Entertainment Bible 1 lists the Zeon strength at "3 Gwazine-class battleships, 12 Chivvay-class heavy cruisers, 39 Musai-class light cruisers, 1 Dolos-class carrier, and 87 medium and small vessels." Putting aside the Dolos, that sounds about right.

EB 1 does seem to have the most accurate ship count. And given Zeon's political climate at the time, I wouldn't be so quick to write off the idea that Zeon didn't have a Dolos. Though I am still interested in hearing why you think the Dolos isn't present.

The 87 smaller vessels could be a mix of Gagauls, Papuas, and Jicos, depending on whether or not we wanna count MSV-R.

* During the battle, most sources (including MS Igloo and The Origin) agree that Dozle's fleet transferred all its Zakus to supply ships, with none remaining aboard the fleet's regular warships. The Origin shows a detached battalion of six Papuas with about nine Zakus each, escorted by two Musais; EB 39 says 22 Papuas, each of which can supposedly carry 20 mobile suits (which seems really implausible). That would come to roughly 84 mobile suits in The Origin, and up to 440 as per EB 39, depending on how seriously we take its claims about the Papua's capacity.

And here's the dreaded EB 39 again. As far as MS capacity, I'd be more quick to assume that they can carry more along the lines of six MS per ship, given that one Papua has the ability to supply two Musais. And that should include equipment and supplies for the crew. I'm more keen to believe that there's more than 22 Papuas, likely enough to restock a third of the fleet, but for the sake of argument, let's assume 30.

I'll assume that if there's disagreement on what ships were present, it's not there unless it's agreed it's there. Doing the math, here, my final ship count for Zeon forces is as follows:

3 Gwazines
1 Jourmungand
12 Chivvays
39 Musais
57 Jicos
30 Papuas
Now assuming that every ship which can carry MS is packed, minus the Papuas which the MS were transferred to at the start of the battle, and also assuming "loose pack" on Musais, that brings our total MS count to 273, which seems pretty reasonable, given the numbers I've been coming up with.
However, only 180 could possibly board the Papuas, so it's possible there were more Papuas than 30.

Edit: Given this, and crunching the numbers, it would take at least 46 Papuas to carry those MS. So it's time to balance the ship count.

41 Jicos
46 Papuas

These new numbers seem more reasonable, given what the fleet at Side 5 had.

[toysdream]

I'm not as bothered about the use of Tianem in Operation British, simply because EB 39 is the only source that says anything about this either way. Really, the only two sources that say anything about Tianem's activities at the start of the war are EB 39 (which says he fought in Operation British) and The Origin (which says he was at Loum). Given the timing, we probably have to pick one or the other.


The idea that Zeon actually tried to carry out a second colony drop at Side 5 comes from Gundam Century, and EB 39 is simply parroting that account. However, by including maps and timelines, EB 39 makes it clear how implausible that scenario actually is. EB 39 uses the wrong Side maps throughout - namely the Zeta Gundam version, where Side 5 is located at L4. This makes it plausible for the Zeon fleet to depart from Solomon (at L5), then the Federation Forces learn of this and dispatch a fleet from Luna II that reaches Side 5 in time to stop them, since both fleets are traveling the same distance.

In the actual anime continuity, of course, the One Year War-era Side map puts Side 5 at L1, on Zeon's doorstep. There's no way that the Federation fleet could race the Zeons to Side 5, and if the Federation already had a fleet there, then the Zeons wouldn't be able to begin prepping a colony drop. MS Igloo, by claiming that Zeon spread false rumors of a second colony drop to lure the Federation's main fleet into the battlefield, is probably giving that theory the maximum amount of credit it could ever deserve.


As far as the participation of the Dolos: Really, it's just that the only sources that make any claims about its deployment date have it appearing much later in the war. EB 1 is kind of an outlier by having it show up at Loum. However, in the opening scenes of the original series, we do see a mysterious carrier-type ship among the Zeon forces massing for the Battle of Loum...


And as for the number of Papuas, the only estimates I've seen are six (as per The Origin) and 22 (as per EB 39), so I'd be inclined to say it's a small force without a huge number of mobile suits. Hobby Japan's old Gundam Games book, for instance, claims that the Zeon fleet had 50 warships at Loum (almost identical to EB 1's tally) and deployed 120 Zakus. I think we could pretty easily fit that many Zakus into 22 Papuas. If we want to credit the Zeon side with a larger number of mobile suits, then perhaps the warships weren't empty after all, but simply didn't have a chance to send their own mobile suits into combat.

Actually, since both MS Igloo and The Origin show the Zeon fleet taking pretty heavy casualties from the Federation's long-range fire before the detached mobile suit force enters the fray, this might actually help explain how Zeon lost so many of its mobile suit pilots in this battle. Perhaps they were actually sitting aboard their Musais, waiting for launch orders that never came, and then their motherships got blown up...

-- Mark

[nickh46]

For what it's worth, my new copy of The Origin Vol 7 came in. Dozle refers to the Tianem's Loum Fleet to be 15 Magellan battleships, 30 Salamis cruisers, "not to mention missile frigates and transports" (so finally, an in-manga reference to them?). Which he says is the same strength as the Zeon Fleet. And that Revil's fleet double that size.

And he mentions they only got one Gwazine...

[toysdream]

Yes, and the onscreen display also shows icons representing 30 Columbus and 40 Public ships. Already noted and included in the above discussion.

Just FYI, I just found some notes I jotted down a while back based on MS Igloo's depiction of the Battle of Loum. Honestly, the numbers here are a lot like those in EB 1, although the Zeon cruisers are all Musais rather than a mix of Musais and Chivvays...


Establishing shots of the Federation fleet en route to Side 5 show at least 12 Magellan battleships and 29 Salamis cruisers, then three Magellan battleships and at least 61 Salamis cruisers. A final shot shows six Magellan battleships and 16 Salamis cruisers in the foreground, and roughly 60 more silhouettes in the background. A later shot shows at least 188 glowing lights in the distance.

We see the Jotunheim flying towards a formation of roughly 44 distant lights. As the assembly of the Jormungand continues, a Gwazine battleship and 14 Musai cruisers fly past, and we then pull out to see there are at least 60 Musai cruisers, although roughly a dozen of them are so far away they can't be conclusively identified. A later long shot shows two Gwazine battleships and roughly 70 Musai-like silhouettes, and an even later one shows two Gwazines and roughly 50 Musai cruisers.

The Principality's mobile suits are deployed from behind the lines by Papua transport ships. A first wave made up of four teams of three mobile suits passes the Jotunheim's observation shuttle, and we see three more teams going by in a subsequent scene. Roughly eight teams pass as Char Aznable communicates with the shuttle, and two more teams follow in the last scene. The total thus includes at least seventeen teams and more than fifty mobile suits.

-- Mark

[RoosAuec]

At this point, we're probably playing around with numbers.

Establishing shots of the Federation fleet en route to Side 5 show at least 12 Magellan battleships and 29 Salamis cruisers, then three Magellan battleships and at least 61 Salamis cruisers.A final shot shows six Magellan battleships and 16 Salamis cruisers in the foreground, and roughly 60 more silhouettes in the background.

This seems consistent with the reserve fleet from Luna-II, which we concluded had to be headed by Admiral Tianem. They would total around 30 Magellans and 60 Salamis. However, how likely is it the Federation would assign 30 battleships to one fleet? It may be that there's more Salamis in the Tianem's fleet than previously expected.

A later shot shows at least 188 glowing lights in the distance.

I can't seem to remember that shot too well. Can you provide a screenshot?

And as for the number of Papuas, the only estimates I've seen are six (as per The Origin) and 22 (as per EB 39), so I'd be inclined to say it's a small force without a huge number of mobile suits. Hobby Japan's old Gundam Games book, for instance, claims that the Zeon fleet had 50 warships at Loum (almost identical to EB 1's tally) and deployed 120 Zakus. I think we could pretty easily fit that many Zakus into 22 Papuas. If we want to credit the Zeon side with a larger number of mobile suits, then perhaps the warships weren't empty after all, but simply didn't have a chance to send their own mobile suits into combat.

But then, the definition of a warship is a vessel armed, armored, and otherwise equipped for naval warfare. That can easily fit the description of a Musai or a Gwazine, and to some extent a Papua, since it's considered "armed" with an unknown number of AA-AMS guns. If we were to believe that the Gundam Games book did provide an accurate number of Zeon ships at the Battle of Loum, then that would leave 28 non-Papua ships in Dozle's fleet. Since Dozle in Origins says that his fleet is equal to the one at Side 5, it's unlikely that he only had 50 ships.

However, 120 Zakus is pretty consistent with what we've observed, and if we do assume that he only has 22 Papuas, then those Papuas can easily transport that amount, as you pointed out. As we're trying to get definite numbers, let's assume that 120 Zakus is the definite amount.

Let's see here...If we go over what we know so far, there was definitely;

2 x Gwazines (+ 1 possible)
1 x Jourmungand
40-70 Musais
22 Papuas
65 other medium to small ships (87 ships - 22 Papuas = 65 unidentified ships )
50 Zakus ( + 70 possible)

[toysdream]

In the Japanese books, they normally make a distinction between capital ships (battleships and cruisers) and the general category of "fighting vessels" (戦闘艦艇) which includes small craft like the Public and Jicco. When the third MSV book is tallying the Federation's fighting strength during the space campaign, it also lists carriers and auxiliary carriers (the Antietam class), but normally you don't see transport and supply ships included in such tallies.

In the case of Loum, we ideally want the Federation's total strength to be about three times that of the Zeon fleet. Gundam Century says "a factor of three or four", while Entertainment Bible 1 says "more than twice the fighting strength," but the actual tallies provided in various books tend to show a smaller difference and indicate that the Federation's numbers relied more heavily on small craft.


Anyways, the upshot is that 50 capital ships (battleships and cruisers) seems reasonable for the Zeon side. Since MS Igloo and Gundam The Origin show no Chivvays on the Zeon side, we could plausibly make these all Musais, plus a couple of token Gwazines. From my notes, it seems like we can only confirm about 50 Musais in MS Igloo - longer shots show 10-20 more silhouettes, but it's possible that these are actually the Papuas before they split off to make their surprise attack. The total of 51 cruisers from EB 1 seems reasonable if we just magically swap all the Chivvays for Musais.

Now how about those small craft? EB 1 says there are 87 "medium and small vessels" on the Zeon side. In The Origin, however, the Federation fleet at Side 5 has about 85 fighting vessels total (15 x Magellan, 30 x Salamis, 40 x Public, not counting transport ships), and the Zeon total is supposed to be similar to this. EB 39 also credits the Zeon side with relatively few assault ships, namely 34 x Jicco.


If the Zeon side has 53-54 capital ships (battleships and cruisers), plus 34 Jiccos (as per EB 39), that brings the total number of fighting vessels (not counting transport ships) to 87-88. This is about the same as the Federation's Side 5 fleet, and also happens to be almost exactly EB 1's tally for medium and small vessels! If we rewrite EB 1 a bit and take that as the total for all sizes of fighting vessel, we get...

53 x battleship and cruiser
2-3 x Gwazine
50-51 x Musai
34 x Jicco
22 x Papua
1 x Jormungand

That's 87 fighting vessels, plus 22 supply ships acting as mobile suit carriers, the Jormungand, and assorted noncombat transport and supply ships. Compare against the Federation side, as per The Origin...

45 x battleship and cruiser
15 x Magellan
30 x Salamis
40 x Public
30 x Columbus

So far so good! And as you suggest, the Federation fleet tally from EB 1 seems pretty sensible for the reinforcements from Luna II. As per MS Igloo, the fleet that engages the Zeons outside Side 5 has at least 12 Magellans and 60 Salamis, which is almost exactly EB 1's tally.

Between the Side 5 and Luna II fleets, then, the Federation would have about 27 x Magellan and 91 x Salamis, for a grand total of 118 battleships and cruisers. That's about 2.6 times the corresponding Zeon number; when we add in all those Publics, the total number of fighting vessels would be even more lopsided.

So, what do you think?

-- Mark