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 Post Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 9:24 pm 
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Mysterious Masked Dude
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Re: Quess's kill totals
I only credit Quess with 3 Jegans because that's all we see on-screen. The fact that we see 13 come up to her and 8 were confirmed to go past does not mean she destroyed the two unaccounted for. It means we don't know what happened to them.

Given that Gyunei is mysterious provided 6 new funnels and a full team of G-Doga wingmen between his destruction of the nuclear missiles (1:14:03) and meeting Amuro (1:15:40), there's enough ambiguity with things in the animation to have to exercise some caution, just as I list two G-Doga kills via sled collisions from Kayra's 1st Wave to be "possibles" and therefore they didn't make my final tally; there's too much ambiguity in the animation to consider these "confirmed" to my mind. As Axis is breaking up, in the distance we see what appears to be a MS fly onto the screen and then mysteriously explode; I didn't count that either way, because there's just no way to judge what it was.

When Cruiser 4 is seen arriving at Axis, it is already very close to the asteroid; it would be easy for any other ships with it to have already broken off to join the rest of the Neo Zeon fleet.

I'd also like to point out when trying to judge MS capacities based on the number of pilots seen that a great many military organizations keep more pilots on their rosters than they have things for them to drive. This is because machines don't get tired, while humans do, and it's often possible to send a machine out on more missions than a single pilot can sustain.

As for Amuro's wave, I could buy 13-14 MS with Amuro, but not ~28. Yes, there are a lot of lights, but we don't have confirmation that the first set of lights -- which are already lit by the time we see them -- are in fact MS and not, say, evidence of Amuro's group ditching their Sleds as out of fuel and then lighting off their own MS's thrusters, for the second group. I find this much more plausible than the idea that Amuro's 2nd wave was even larger than the first wave, since none of the later shots back that up.


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 Post Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 10:22 pm 
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Black Knight wrote:
Re: Quess's kill totals
I only credit Quess with 3 Jegans because that's all we see on-screen. The fact that we see 13 come up to her and 8 were confirmed to go past does not mean she destroyed the two unaccounted for. It means we don't know what happened to them.


I should note that we do see two more explosions, though we don't see what actually exploded. But since the number of surviving Jegans match, it might not be such a farfetched possibility.

Black Knight wrote:
Given that Gyunei is mysterious provided 6 new funnels and a full team of G-Doga wingmen between his destruction of the nuclear missiles (1:14:03) and meeting Amuro (1:15:40), there's enough ambiguity with things in the animation to have to exercise some caution, just as I list two G-Doga kills via sled collisions from Kayra's 1st Wave to be "possibles" and therefore they didn't make my final tally; there's too much ambiguity in the animation to consider these "confirmed" to my mind. As Axis is breaking up, in the distance we see what appears to be a MS fly onto the screen and then mysteriously explode; I didn't count that either way, because there's just no way to judge what it was.


I completely agree with you regarding the ambiguity of many things in the animation (such as a scene where Rezin's Geara Doga is first shown green and the next frame is blue, and a few moments later there are two blue Geara Dogas on screen, and let's not forget the Musakas marks). I also saw the MS that rammed into Axis and can't identify it either.

Black Knight wrote:
When Cruiser 4 is seen arriving at Axis, it is already very close to the asteroid; it would be easy for any other ships with it to have already broken off to join the rest of the Neo Zeon fleet.


But we are not given anything pointing out to that possibility, nor we suddenly see more Musakas on screen after ship 4 arrival.

Black Knight wrote:
I'd also like to point out when trying to judge MS capacities based on the number of pilots seen that a great many military organizations keep more pilots on their rosters than they have things for them to drive. This is because machines don't get tired, while humans do, and it's often possible to send a machine out on more missions than a single pilot can sustain.


I'm not quite sure to what are you trying to refer here. I'm guessing its about the MS pilots seen during the briefing on the Ra Cailum, in which 9 are seen plus Amuro. Please be a bit more specific and what you were trying to say.

As for Amuro's wave, I could buy 13-14 MS with Amuro, but not ~28. Yes, there are a lot of lights, but we don't have confirmation that the first set of lights -- which are already lit by the time we see them -- are in fact MS and not, say, evidence of Amuro's group ditching their Sleds as out of fuel and then lighting off their own MS's thrusters, for the second group. I find this much more plausible than the idea that Amuro's 2nd wave was even larger than the first wave, since none of the later shots back that up.[/quote]

I'm not entirely convinced by the sled idea since Amuro is seen launching without one for that particular sortie, nor we see any sleds at all along the second wave. But on the second attack he can be seen approaching the Alpha Azieru riding one.

Furthermore, for all we know Kayra's group could also have 27 Jegans since we see two of the closest sleds carrying 2 Jegans, but some of the ones on the background could be in the same situation, which could actually mean that the entire MS forces are evenly divided into two waves consisting of 28 MS each: 27 Jegans and 1 high spec MS.

By the way, I just spotted 2 more Jegans destroyed during the first attack on Axis, when Gyunei spots Amuro.


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 Post Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 11:00 pm 
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Gelgoog Jager wrote:
I should note that we do see two more explosions, though we don't see what actually exploded. But since the number of surviving Jegans match, it might not be such a farfetched possibility.

Possible, certainly. Confirmed, no.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Black Knight wrote:
When Cruiser 4 is seen arriving at Axis, it is already very close to the asteroid; it would be easy for any other ships with it to have already broken off to join the rest of the Neo Zeon fleet.


But we are not given anything pointing out to that possibility, nor we suddenly see more Musakas on screen after ship 4 arrival.


No, but then, we very rarely see any forces without a named character among them. Name any crewmember of a Musaka cruiser (MS pilot's aren't crew).

I was pointing out that we don't have a shot which can categorically deny that Cruiser 4 came to Axis alone, just as we don't have any that categorically prove that the entire Neo Zeon fleet was there -- though this would make the most sense. Concentration of force, and all. But we've also already observed that Neo Zeon's plans are often extremely amateur -- Rezin's diversionary attack for example. We're left with a bit of a Hobsen's Choice: the Neo Zeon fleet was either all at Axis and therefore nearly all destroyed, mostly off-screen, or else it was spread out in an overly complicated plan (such as those the IJN repeatedly employed in WWII), reinforcing the idea that Char's force was poorly organized. Which would you prefer? Personally, I favor the latter if only because it gives me more ammunition for my "Char is a mediocre pilot & commander" arguments. Tactically, it's idiotic.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Black Knight wrote:
I'd also like to point out when trying to judge MS capacities based on the number of pilots seen that a great many military organizations keep more pilots on their rosters than they have things for them to drive. This is because machines don't get tired, while humans do, and it's often possible to send a machine out on more missions than a single pilot can sustain.


I'm not quite sure to what are you trying to refer here. I'm guessing its about the MS pilots seen during the briefing on the Ra Cailum, in which 9 are seen plus Amuro. Please be a bit more specific and what you were trying to say.


I was actually referring to the controversy over the Musaka MS capacity and your example of how many pilots were with Rezin when she's harassing Gyunei. If you have more pilots than machines, you can use your machines for more total hours in a given period of time, because two pilots can operate the same MS in rotation, resting when they're not flying. We don't see the sort of fight durations which would require it here (though the silly official timeline for Zeta makes several multi-day battles), but a well organized force would have it.

So, 6+ pilots a ship mean only that there are 6+ pilots; it doesn't directly confirm that there are 6+ mobile suits, though with the original official capacity of 4 MS, 6 would fit the long-established ability of ships to hold ~50% extra MS for short periods of time, as we see often enough in Zeta. It doesn't mean the ship can operate them for long periods of time, which is the usual definition of "capacity" in a military context.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Black Knight wrote:
As for Amuro's wave, I could buy 13-14 MS with Amuro, but not ~28. Yes, there are a lot of lights, but we don't have confirmation that the first set of lights -- which are already lit by the time we see them -- are in fact MS and not, say, evidence of Amuro's group ditching their Sleds as out of fuel and then lighting off their own MS's thrusters, for the second group. I find this much more plausible than the idea that Amuro's 2nd wave was even larger than the first wave, since none of the later shots back that up.


I'm not entirely convinced by the sled idea since Amuro is seen launching without one for that particular sortie, nor we see any sleds at all along the second wave. But on the second attack he can be seen approaching the Alpha Azieru riding one.

Furthermore, for all we know Kayra's group could also have 27 Jegans since we see two of the closest sleds carrying 2 Jegans, but some of the ones on the background could be in the same situation, which could actually mean that the entire MS forces are evenly divided into two waves consisting of 28 MS each: 27 Jegans and 1 high spec MS.

Possible, of course. But I've always wondered why they launched the MS in two waves in the first place. Amuro's force seems to catch up to Kayra's very quickly, which is impressive since she never bothered engaging in a melee with the Neo Zeon forces, but always just evaded and kept pushing towards Axis.

Reasons to have a 2nd Wave:
- 1st wave ties up defenders, so then 2nd wave can blast through them at high speed to attack the critical targets
- Can only prep so many MS for combat in the hangar, and we know Ra Cailum carried extra MS
- Needed time to bring more sleds up from storage, since the battle was taking place so far away
- Reserves to counter any unexpected moves by the enemy

Reasons to not have a 2nd Wave:
- Overwhelming force works, often overwhelmingly.

Reserves are, by definition, a smaller group held back from the front lines, and 10-12 Jegans fits this bill much better than leading the same number as Kayra's 1st Wave, particularly as we have no way to explain 50+ Jegans in Londo Bell's task force; the more traditional 30-36 number is backed up by a couple other shots, so I'm disinclined to instantly claim the extra 14 lights before Nu shows on the screen are more MS. I'd consider it much more likely that since Kayra is shown pushing through early defenses directly to Axis with only ~4-5 of her ~25 Jegans, these extra lights, if they are MS, represent the remainder of Kayra's force which is now being backed up by Amuro's 2nd Wave, and thus advancing.

The problem with counting just the lights of thruster trails is that doing so would show that Rezin began her diversionary attack on the Londo Bell fleet with 12 MS (at 19:00), but retreats with 14 (at 22:01). I doubt she picked up 2 defectors from Londo Bell in the middle of the fight.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
By the way, I just spotted 2 more Jegans destroyed during the first attack on Axis, when Gyunei spots Amuro.

Would these be the two at 1:15:42 who I listed as going down to a dose of Macross Missile Massacre? There aren't any Jegans around when Amuro meets Gyunei again as he's holding Kayra hostage around 1:18:40, so I'm guessing that it is.


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 Post Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:01 am 
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Black Knight wrote:
I was pointing out that we don't have a shot which can categorically deny that Cruiser 4 came to Axis alone, just as we don't have any that categorically prove that the entire Neo Zeon fleet was there -- though this would make the most sense. Concentration of force, and all. But we've also already observed that Neo Zeon's plans are often extremely amateur -- Rezin's diversionary attack for example. We're left with a bit of a Hobsen's Choice: the Neo Zeon fleet was either all at Axis and therefore nearly all destroyed, mostly off-screen, or else it was spread out in an overly complicated plan (such as those the IJN repeatedly employed in WWII), reinforcing the idea that Char's force was poorly organized. Which would you prefer? Personally, I favor the latter if only because it gives me more ammunition for my "Char is a mediocre pilot & commander" arguments. Tactically, it's idiotic.


There are other possibilities, such as the Federation actually trying to prevent the nukes from reaching Axis and thus launching an attack that required the other 4 Musakas to stay behind or them being sent back to protect Sweetwater. Either way we know that at least 3 Muskas survive as far as U.C. 0096.

Regarding Char, I would not actually try to defend someone who actually gave away the one technology, the psycho frame, which was the only advantage his forces actually had, which came to show he cared more for his duel with Amuro than for achieving Neo Zeon's goals. As for his MS piloting skills, in MSG it almost seemed that the better the MS he was given, the worse his skill became.

Black Knight wrote:
I was actually referring to the controversy over the Musaka MS capacity and your example of how many pilots were with Rezin when she's harassing Gyunei. If you have more pilots than machines, you can use your machines for more total hours in a given period of time, because two pilots can operate the same MS in rotation, resting when they're not flying. We don't see the sort of fight durations which would require it here (though the silly official timeline for Zeta makes several multi-day battles), but a well organized force would have it.

So, 6+ pilots a ship mean only that there are 6+ pilots; it doesn't directly confirm that there are 6+ mobile suits, though with the original official capacity of 4 MS, 6 would fit the long-established ability of ships to hold ~50% extra MS for short periods of time, as we see often enough in Zeta. It doesn't mean the ship can operate them for long periods of time, which is the usual definition of "capacity" in a military context.


And we do have a great example for a unit that had more pilots than MS, the Chimera Corps, which had 31 pilots for 24 MS. However in the case you mention we do have confirmed that a total of 10 MS launch from the 2 Musakas, which does seem to point out that those two pilots probably also ahd their own unit. Besides, I don't think Rezin will allow someone else to use her customized unit, which would basically leave 3 pilots for the only normal Geara Doga. At most this might be a case of the 50% extra MS you also mentioned.

Black Knight wrote:
Possible, of course. But I've always wondered why they launched the MS in two waves in the first place. Amuro's force seems to catch up to Kayra's very quickly, which is impressive since she never bothered engaging in a melee with the Neo Zeon forces, but always just evaded and kept pushing towards Axis.

Reasons to have a 2nd Wave:
- 1st wave ties up defenders, so then 2nd wave can blast through them at high speed to attack the critical targets
- Can only prep so many MS for combat in the hangar, and we know Ra Cailum carried extra MS
- Needed time to bring more sleds up from storage, since the battle was taking place so far away
- Reserves to counter any unexpected moves by the enemy

Reasons to not have a 2nd Wave:
- Overwhelming force works, often overwhelmingly.

Reserves are, by definition, a smaller group held back from the front lines, and 10-12 Jegans fits this bill much better than leading the same number as Kayra's 1st Wave, particularly as we have no way to explain 50+ Jegans in Londo Bell's task force; the more traditional 30-36 number is backed up by a couple other shots, so I'm disinclined to instantly claim the extra 14 lights before Nu shows on the screen are more MS. I'd consider it much more likely that since Kayra is shown pushing through early defenses directly to Axis with only ~4-5 of her ~25 Jegans, these extra lights, if they are MS, represent the remainder of Kayra's force which is now being backed up by Amuro's 2nd Wave, and thus advancing.

The problem with counting just the lights of thruster trails is that doing so would show that Rezin began her diversionary attack on the Londo Bell fleet with 12 MS (at 19:00), but retreats with 14 (at 22:01). I doubt she picked up 2 defectors from Londo Bell in the middle of the fight.


Regarding the size of Londo Bell's forces, beside the possible extra 50% MS capcity, we see the Ra Cailum leaving Londonion with 6 extra Jegans attached to its hull, while a Clop is seen leaving with at least two Jegans each with a sled. Taking all these factors into consideration, the possible upper limit could be 42 MS. If we also consider that some surviving Jegans from Luna II decide to accompany Londo Bell, 50 Jegans would actually be a possible number.

Regarding the two extra MS leaving with Rezin, they could simply be two Jegans try to chase the Geara Dogas. Remember that almost at the end of the movie, we see two Jegans chasing six Geara Dogas that are heading back to the Rewloola, which gives us an example of a few Jegan pilots being reckless and pursuing a larger force.

Black Knight wrote:
Would these be the two at 1:15:42 who I listed as going down to a dose of Macross Missile Massacre? There aren't any Jegans around when Amuro meets Gyunei again as he's holding Kayra hostage around 1:18:40, so I'm guessing that it is.


Yes, I must have missed them when I was counting. So the death toll of the Jegans increases to:
Londo Bell: 18 units
All froces: 31 units


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 Post Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 2:30 am 
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Gelgoog Jager wrote:
There are other possibilities, such as the Federation actually trying to prevent the nukes from reaching Axis and thus launching an attack that required the other 4 Musakas to stay behind or them being sent back to protect Sweetwater. Either way we know that at least 3 Muskas survive as far as U.C. 0096.

That doesn't fit with what we know of EFSF deployments, however, which is that the Sides have garrisons, but Londo Bell is the only force not tied down to a single Side. And Londo Bell repeatedly complains that the rest of the EFSF won't support them, until they're surprised as they go in for the second attack at Axis that Side 2 & Side 5 are sending help, which dovetails neatly with the report given to Rewloola's Captain Lyle, who's just as surprised the rest of the EFSF is supporting Londo Bell as Bright.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Regarding Char, I would not actually try to defend someone who actually gave away the one technology, the psycho frame, which was the only advantage his forces actually had, which came to show he cared more for his duel with Amuro than for achieving Neo Zeon's goals. As for his MS piloting skills, in MSG it almost seemed that the better the MS he was given, the worse his skill became.

I agree completely. If this was a Char topic I'd tangent here, but it isn't.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
And we do have a great example for a unit that had more pilots than MS, the Chimera Corps, which had 31 pilots for 24 MS. However in the case you mention we do have confirmed that a total of 10 MS launch from the 2 Musakas, which does seem to point out that those two pilots probably also ahd their own unit. Besides, I don't think Rezin will allow someone else to use her customized unit, which would basically leave 3 pilots for the only normal Geara Doga. At most this might be a case of the 50% extra MS you also mentioned.

Sure, I won't say that a Musaka is incapable of carrying 6 MS; but I will argue that evidence of MS deployment in CCA indicates a standard capacity of 4. I'm not convinced that one can carry 6 internally & have two on the outside, however. I'd call four MS internally and two on the outside the "50% extra" and leave it at that.

As for the "10 MS from 2 cruisers"...this is at a time in the movie when there are all sorts of unexplained events, like Gyunei regenerating funnels & mysteriously acquiring MS teams, so I'm hesitant to say that 2 Jagd Dogas & 8 Geara Dogas came from only 2 Musakas. Time and space are play so fast & loose that I find it difficult to credit some of what it appears we see. Another example is that in all our Neo Zeon MS accounting, we're crediting Rewloola with holding only a single mobile suit: Sazabi. This makes no sense whatsoever, but it's what the animation is suggesting.

I was unable to find an instance of 3 Geara Dogas being launched from the same ship catapult, which would leave us with 4 MS internally on each Musaka, even though the hangar shots involving Jagd Dogas aboard a Musaka make the hangars look very spacious with more than enough room for 8-10 MS (much as Ra Cailum's hangar seems far too large for the comparatively small number of MS inside).

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Regarding the size of Londo Bell's forces, beside the possible extra 50% MS capcity, we see the Ra Cailum leaving Londonion with 6 extra Jegans attached to its hull, while a Clop is seen leaving with at least two Jegans each with a sled. Taking all these factors into consideration, the possible upper limit could be 42 MS. If we also consider that some surviving Jegans from Luna II decide to accompany Londo Bell, 50 Jegans would actually be a possible number.

Again, we're running into different methods of accounting. When Argama, already carrying 3 Rick Dias & the Mk IIs, suddenly had to carry Mont Blanc's GM IIs, these MS were not able to be carried internally, though they still more or less operated from the ship. The extra 50% capacity, then, was not necessarily "extra room inside the hangar". The animation is inconsistent on this part, however, as with so many things.

You seem to be double-dipping; holding +50% in the hangar, and an additional number outside the hull. That doesn't sit well with me.

I'd say that there's a difference between being able to hold 50% extra MS in the hangar just before launch, and the ability to do necessary maintenance & repair on 50% extra MS. In my scenario, the ship's normal capacity is the maximum it can practically hold on board internally and still do all the routine (and emergency) work to keep the MS operating in top condition. When adding 50% more, if you want to maintain anything inside the hangar, you need to have space to move equipment around, so you store excess MS outside. You can rotate which ones are out on the hull, but you can't maintain more than the "standard" capacity inside at once. You can bring the +50% inside right before launch, however, so that your force can be sent off all at once.

This would possibly explain why Ra Cailum makes a practice of storing some seemingly-damage MS outside the hangar -- such as the Jegan Hathaway steals. We see some MS being worked on inside the ship, but Hathaway's Jegan looks fully functional, missing only a competent pilot. It would also explain why we see extra MS on the hull when Londo Bell leaves Londenium, but not when they're readying the two waves to attack Axis.

This also would remove these spurious ideas that Londo Bell took some MS from the Luna II survivors -- we see no evidence of any MS surviving the attack on Luna II. In fact, given their lack of battle damage, I'd say the two Salamis Kais accompanying the beat-up Clop were not from the Luna II garrison at all. Side 1 forces responding to a distress call, perhaps? Either way, it's a blue-uniformed enlisted man who explains to Bright & Meran what happened to Minister Paraya, not a surviving officer from one of the undamaged SKs.

Gelgoog Jager wrote:
Regarding the two extra MS leaving with Rezin, they could simply be two Jegans try to chase the Geara Dogas. Remember that almost at the end of the movie, we see two Jegans chasing six Geara Dogas that are heading back to the Rewloola, which gives us an example of a few Jegan pilots being reckless and pursuing a larger force.

Yes, they -- and all times we just see distant thruster trails -- could be just about anything. This is why I said I'm leery of counting thruster trails alone for anything, like the number of MS accompanying Nu Gundam on the first attack against Axis. We know at least 10 Jegans accompanied Amuro, because we see two destroyed and then eight others come on-screen. We don't know that there were two flights of 14 MS, because all we see are two groups of 14 thruster trails. I consider this different from the shot of Kayra's 1st Wave, because 1) there all the thruster trails are on at once, and 2) some of them are close enough to show that the thruster trails are MS on sleds. Without that proximity, for all we know some of the 28 thruster trails preceding Amuro's 2nd wave are dummies.

It's largely the fact that 14 thruster trails disappear, and then 14 more come on, that makes me think this was Amuro's 2nd wave ditching their sleds. When Kayra's force ditches theirs, the sleds keep moving for awhile, thrusters on, and the Jegans then light off their own thrusters. Remember that it's a convention of animation that a spacecraft is always firing its thrusters to show movement, even though the thrusters don't actually need to be firing for the machine to move.

Black Knight wrote:
Yes, I must have missed them when I was counting. So the death toll of the Jegans increases to:
Londo Bell: 18 units
All froces: 31 units

For clarity, I'll list the Londo Bell forces I'm tracking destroyed:

5th Luna:
2 Jegans destroyed anonymously (4:25) (since one pilot contacts Amuro, whom we see fighting Gyunei, I consider it possible that Gyunei scored these kills, but there is absolutely no way to confirm or deny)

Axis 1st attack:
Rezin destroys 1 Jegan (1:13:24)
1 Jegan destroyed by ship (probably Rewloola) (1:15:27)
2 Jegans destroyed by Gyunei's G-Doga team (1:15:42)

Axis 2nd attack:
Quess destroys 2 Jegans (1:32:11)
Quess destroys 1 Jegan (1:32:16)
1 Jegan destroyed by Rewloola (1:41:04)
5 Jegans destroyed by Char (1:43:32)
1 Jegan explodes from an unknown cause (1:45:08)

And that's my list of Londo Jegans which were (or possibly were) destroyed by the actions of Neo Zeon. I come up with 13 clearly due to enemy action, and one a mystery. I know you added 2 Jegans to Quess's tally, which I don't agree with, but that's the way things go.

I'm even more annoyed with Char as I consider that the 5th Luna operation used at least 8 Neo Zeon warships, one more than you're saying took part in the far more critical Axis operation. As the lynchpin of Char's plan, I argue that even a tactical idiot like Char generally is (Jaburo Drop '79, anyone?) knows to commit all the forces he can scrape together when the chips are finally down. And ~ 4 cruisers would just completely disappear from the movie if we don't place them as arriving as Cruiser 4's escorts.


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